Day 399: 6/22/20

Fundraising numbers for May were released, which means the only thing Joe Biden wanted to talk about were his fundraising numbers. And Trump’s. And how they compared.

EmailsCampaigns
Total61
Non-Donor31
Donor31

For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, though I have previously been on the mailing lists of 28 Democratic candidates! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

It took some time for the Trump emails to kick in, so I started officially tracking his list on July 7. I have been tracking Biden’s for longer, but I will start comparing them as of July 7. All of these emails are going to a new email, and I have not donated, filled out surveys, signed petitions, or otherwise interacted with either candidate’s emails.

The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

Back to normal

Joe Biden sent 3 emails to each account on Monday.

Not fully green

In 1 of those emails, he encouraged me to attend the fundraiser with himself and Barack Obama. In all of the emails, he asked me to donate money. While one of his emails was about the Obama/Biden fundraiser (in which they are still 11% behind a fundraising goal they never mentioned before and did not specify the value of now, but if I could donate again, that’d be great!), the other two were rehashing the exact same topic in slightly different wording: WE OUTRAISED TRUMP! BUT HE HAS A HEAD START! PLEASE DONATE MORE!

Because donating money was the only thing on his mind.

Fundraising numbers get submitted to the FEC/released to the public on the 20th of the month, so Biden was able to see how well Trump is doing compared to himself.

The result

This was the groundbreaking chart he released to show me how much more his fundraising had grown compared to Trump’s.

Now, it is worth noting that this is for the COMBINED total of RNC + Trump fundraising vs DNC + Biden fundraising, with a difference of $6.8 million. The actual Trump vs Biden?

Screenshot from FEC.gov with my bad mouse-writing

Biden raised $12 million more than Trump.

In fact, if you run the numbers… Biden outraised Trump every single month in 2020, even before he was the nominee.

We want to see the blue and green lines trending up and the red line trending down.

Unfortunately, if you actually look at the numbers… Trump’s fundraising is recovering, while Biden’s is slipping. He peaked after Super Tuesday, with a windfall of candidates endorsing him one after the other, but he’s not managing to keep that momentum up.

I can’t say for certain, as I don’t have any of the metrics behind the emails, but I did notice that when Pete Buttigieg’s email quality vs quantity started to drop, so did his fundraising numbers.

And Biden’s email quality has never been that great to begin with, though it hit its peak in March, when he was welcoming in all the new endorsements and being genuinely personable and grateful.

Hmm. Personable emails acknowledging the reality of the world are correlated* with higher fundraising numbers?

WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT?

*Correlation does not equal causation. Yes, Mr. Guzzo, I remember stats class.

I wish Google Sheets would let me put just the one end number inside the bar. Just the one. 1244 emails for Biden.

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