Day 268: 2/12/20

The day after New Hampshire was quiet, as the field stared at the fallen campaigns of Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet. Joe Biden tried to cheer up his troops, and Elizabeth Warren encouraged her supporters to work through their grief. Bernie Sanders braced for new attacks, and Pete Buttigieg likes pizza.


For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, though I have previously been on the mailing lists of 28 Democratic candidates! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

It took some time for the Trump emails to kick in, so I started officially tracking his list on July 7. I have been tracking Biden’s for longer, but I will start comparing them as of July 7. All of these emails are going to a new email, and I have not donated, filled out surveys, signed petitions, or otherwise interacted with either candidate’s emails.

The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

I’m surprised at the lack of diversity in colors left.

Amy Klobuchar showed off her campaign chops by tying with Pete Buttigieg for most emails sent in a single day with 5, while Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both only managed to get 4 out. Elizabeth Warren settled down in the middle with her perfectly central 3 emails.

There’s a lack of diversity here too.

After New Hampshire, all anyone wanted to talk about was New Hampshire.

Well, all anyone not named Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg instead wanted me to share news about his record on women’s rights. Hampshire-Shmampshire.

Despite there actually being a defined winner (Bernie Sanders) in New Hampshire, there was still a bit of a hiccup as Pete Buttigieg chased him close enough to tie with the number of delegates awarded, meaning Buttigieg is still leading the delegate count. Amy Klobuchar snatched up all the remaining delegates, leaving Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren shut out.

Absolutely no purely pessimistic emails.

And yet the email tone was surprisingly upbeat and hopeful. Candidates really had learned their lesson from Iowa, especially Joe Biden.

I’m not going to try to spin you on this. We didn’t win Iowa or New Hampshire.

But I woke up this morning fired up about the next two states — Nevada and South Carolina — whose populations reflect the diversity of this country. They will vote next on who they want to see take on Trump.

Fewer than 10,000 African American voters have participated in the Democratic primary so far. Nearly 8 million will vote before the Democratic primary is over. 99.9 percent of African American Democratic primary voters have not yet voted. 99.8 percent of Latino Democratic primary voters have not yet voted.

Look, we’ve got to show the pundits they were wrong to count us out before Nevadans and South Carolinians have had their say. Will you chip in $5 before midnight to support our voter outreach operations for the rest of the month?

So far, only 65 out of a total of nearly 4,000 delegates have been awarded. That’s only 1.6 percent, folks. Let’s keep this all in perspective.

We are going to put our all into making sure our supporters get to the caucuses and polls in Nevada, South Carolina, in the Super Tuesday states and beyond.

But it’s going to be expensive, and our fundraising goals this month are really high. Will you chip in $5 or whatever you can spare today to fuel Joe Biden’s campaign?

Greg Schultz, Campaign Manager, Biden for President

The Biden campaign is leaning hard into the narrative that the first two losses were pretty expected, but now the real fight begins. They just have to weather the narrative and get their win next week in Nevada and everything will be fine. Biden even went so far as to send me this image to show just how little the current delegate losses matter.

Iowa and New Hampshire Were Just the Beginning

Technically, Biden is correct. Barely any delegates have been awarded. However, the primary as a whole is a sequential contest, where each state provides a foundation for the next step. It’s not as simple as going “Oh, look at all these uncolored dots!” The more colored dots you have, the more likely you are to get another colored dot.

That’s what’s called momentum.

I made this, inspired by Biden’s chart.

I actually went ahead and made a delegate map of the United States, so you can see where everyone is at. There’s not much awarded yet, but Pete Buttigieg is in the lead with delegates, with Bernie Sanders right behind.

Biden’s desperation for money would be more notable if it weren’t a cornerstone of his campaign.

Not much has changed (though Biden giving his word as a Biden that he’s not going anywhere is… probably not going to age well).

Stop me if you’re shocked

Biden isn’t the only candidate getting worried about his funding. Elizabeth Warren informed me that she had a critical need for $7 million by the Nevada caucus, her biggest fundraising push ever (and I think the biggest out of all the candidates). However, she did take a moment to acknowledge New Hampshire in a way that I found really appropriate.

Let’s face it: Last night didn’t go the way we wanted it to go.

We were hoping for a better result in New Hampshire, and a lot of volunteers and grassroots supporters fought really hard to make it happen.

It hurts to care so much, work so hard, and still fall a little short.

So it’s okay to take a moment and feel that pain, or process that disappointment.

Take a walk around the block, eat an extra piece of chocolate, hug your pet, adopt a pet, watch videos of cats and dogs who are friends, call a friend — whatever works.

But once you’ve let it all out, take a deep breath, square your shoulders, and make a plan — a plan to fight back and win. A plan to help make sure that we won’t have to feel this way again.

Team Warren

These losses are hard for anyone to take, and they can physically feel like a gut punch. Taking a moment to work through the pain and disappointment is much healthier than bottling it up and letting it fester deep down. It’s hard to lose. Harder still to lose your candidate, though Deval Patrick tried to put it in perspective with his dropping-out email.

I could see last night in the faces of many of our supporters that this setback is hard. But let’s keep our perspective. Hard is choosing between paying the heat or the rent in the same month. Hard is not knowing if you’ll be able to afford the prescription drugs that keep you alive. Hard is serving your country in the military and not being able to live off the streets when you come home. Hard is being called the N word by fellow citizens leaving and inspired by a rally for the President of the United States. Hard is trying to vote when your own government doesn’t believe you should have a say. Hard is wondering whether you or your family will be deported from the only country you’ve really ever known, to which you’ve paid taxes or for which you’ve worn the uniform, because you once sought refuge from violence or despair. Hard is facing a cancer diagnosis, especially if you don’t think you’re covered. These and similar questions can only be answered by deciding the character of the country. That’s what’s at stake right now. I’ve never been afraid of doing what’s hard — only of missing the opportunity to do what’s right.

Deval Patrick

The losing candidates weren’t the only ones looking for money. Amy Klobuchar started a one-day fund of $100,000 (which she quickly surpassed) to get her Nevada and South Carolina campaigns powered up, while Bernie Sanders warned about incoming attacks (and claimed, yet again, that he won in Iowa [he didn’t]).

Following last night’s victory in New Hampshire, we are writing to ask you to contribute $2.70 to Bernie so together we can take on the billionaires funding our opponents and win this primary.

One thing is clear:

We’ve got the billionaire class of this country very, very nervous. We won in Iowa. We won in New Hampshire. And now they want to stop us in Nevada and South Carolina — two states that vote later this month.

You can see it in how the corporate media is covering our movement, and the super PACs that are spending big against us. You can see it in the political establishment and financial elite holding private meetings plotting how to defeat us.

We cannot underestimate their efforts to stop our campaign.

So we’ve set some big goals to meet before midnight tonight. Goals we need to reach if we’re going to have the resources to run a winning campaign.

We’ve come too far to come up short, which is why we need to ask:

Can you contribute $2.70 to stand with Bernie today? Help us reach our goals and keep us on a path to win this election and transform our country.

While we are off to an incredible start with voting underway, our biggest challenges are still ahead. And it is very important that we are ready for what’s to come.

Your contribution today will ensure we can build the organization required to win. Thanks for adding one before midnight.

Faiz Shakir, Campaign Manager, Bernie 2020

Even Pete Buttigieg is not immune to the need for more cash. However, while all the other campaigns were just flat-out asking for money…

Why hello there…

Pete Buttigieg offered up a contest, an old favorite of his followers. Donate and win a chance to have Pizza with Pete.

He emailed so much about this last time he ran it, that it inspired the merch design for him in my BTE store.

Square slices. I know what’s up!
Deval Patrick dropped on a nice number.

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