Day 267: 2/11/20

Tuesday was the first in the nation primary in New Hampshire, and Bernie Sanders pulled off a victory with not even 2% more of the vote than his runner-up, Pete Buttigieg. The story of the night is Amy Klobuchar coming out in third place, but it’s also of Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet ending their campaigns on the same day.

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For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, though I have previously been on the mailing lists of 28 Democratic candidates! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

It took some time for the Trump emails to kick in, so I started officially tracking his list on July 7. I have been tracking Biden’s for longer, but I will start comparing them as of July 7. All of these emails are going to a new email, and I have not donated, filled out surveys, signed petitions, or otherwise interacted with either candidate’s emails.

The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

I can’t even…

Pete Buttigieg towered above his competition with a massive 9 emails in one day, pushing harder for New Hampshire than he did for Iowa. Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders all eked out only 5 emails, in comparison, while Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren settled in with only 4.

Campaign Events = New Hampshire

Almost every single email yesterday was about New Hampshire and what was going on in New Hampshire. The low-polling candidates (Michael Bennet, Tulsi Gabbard, and Deval Patrick, most notably) were betting everything on doing well in this state, while the front runners were, well, being front runners.

New Hampshire did not go well for many candidates. Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet both dropped out before the results were even called, while Deval Patrick made an announcement that he was going to seriously consider the future of his campaign overnight with his wife. However, Tulsi Gabbard was thrilled that she hit her $1.5 million fundraising goal and was going to hit the ground running in South Carolina.

Elizabeth Warren sent a very lengthy email explaining what lessons they had learned from Iowa and enumerating her competitors’ biggest weaknesses:

LOOKING AHEAD

Every one of the Democratic candidates remaining would make a better president than Donald Trump. But the primary contests ahead will be a test for all of the campaigns. Our opponents each tell the story of their strengths, but it’s worth a quick, sober look at the landscape of their challenges:

Senator Sanders starts with a ceiling that’s significantly lower than the support he had four years ago. In Iowa, Sanders got no more than half the number of people who caucused for him last time, despite spending $11.2 million in the state on TV ads — a third more than he spent in 2016. In New Hampshire, he is on track to receive around half of his 2016 vote share as well. And he hasn’t yet faced the scrutiny of his record that will surely come with any further rise.

Former Vice President Biden entered this race as the clear frontrunner, reaching over 40% in national polling last spring. He’s now polling under 30% even among older voters and African-American voters, who have been his strongest supporters, and his support among younger voters has fallen to just 6%.

Former Mayor Buttigieg’s most significant challenge is yet to come, as the contest moves into states with more diverse electorates, and he still hasn’t answered tough questions about his record in South Bend. And as the results in Iowa showed, according to Iowa’s Starting Line, “Buttigieg’s numbers in Waterloo, the Iowa city with the highest percentage of African Americans, were brutal.”

Former Mayor Bloomberg has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the March states, but is on track to fall short of winning delegates in 85% of Super Tuesday districts. And keep in mind that Bloomberg will soon be forced to actually debate his record, rather than hiding behind millions in TV ads.

Senator Klobuchar is getting a well-deserved look from voters for the first time, but hasn’t been able to build out infrastructure for the long haul, and is playing catch up on a very short timeline. Like others in the race, she hasn’t yet faced the tough questions and scrutiny that accompany rising momentum.

After today, the primary race moves to two of the most diverse contests in the country: Nevada and South Carolina. Through today, our organization is closing in on nearly a million contacts with voters in each state. And let’s not forget that early voting has already begun in many states.

When the race moves on from the early states, votes for Warren will already have been cast in 19 states with election days that follow South Carolina. And within 72 hours of the South Carolina polls closing, Super Tuesday results will be rolling in.

Roger Lau, Campaign Manager, Warren for President

Despite an absolutely dismal finish in New Hampshire (less than 10% of the vote, with 0 delegates to her name), Warren is insistent that she will hold out through Super Tuesday. She does have a strong ground game in many of the remaining states, but if her fundraising dries up, so too will her infrastructure.

Info was Andrew Yang dropping out.

Joe Biden was struggling to keep his head above water as New Hampshire started to vote. He argued, again, that his fundraising goals were higher than ever (and then in the non-donor version, said they were only $200,000 away from their goal and had donations surging in). He talked about how he, of all the candidates, had experienced great loss and would be damned if he lost his country too. And he told me that he’s just getting started.

Tonight, we just heard from the second of the first two states in our party’s nomination process.

Two.

Not all of the nation, not half of the nation, not a quarter, not 10 percent.

Two states.

This is the opening bell — not the closing bell — in the fight to end Donald Trump’s presidency.

We’ve got to give these next two states all we’ve got folks, so I’m hoping you’ll pitch in today and give $5 or whatever you can to support our campaign.

Here’s the deal: up until now, we haven’t heard from either the most committed constituency in the Democratic party — the African-American community — or the fastest growing segment in American society — the Latino community.

99.9% of African-American and 99.8% of Latino voters have not yet had the chance to cast their vote in this primary, and we can’t leave their voices out of the nomination process.

The strength of our party is in its diversity and we must make sure every voice is heard. And we need to hear from Nevada, and South Carolina, the Super Tuesday states and beyond.

Look folks, we have got to do whatever it takes to defeat Donald Trump. Winning this primary is going to be tough. We always knew that. But I know you’ve got my back — and that’s why I’m asking you one more time before I sign off tonight for a $5 donation to help our campaign. We need you with us in the fight:

https://go.joebiden.com/Donate

We’re just getting started,

Joe Biden

It will definitely be interesting to watch how Biden holds up as Nevada and South Carolina get to vote. Somehow, I don’t think he’ll have as strong a showing as he insists he will.

Bernie Sanders asked me to do what less than half of his supporters have done: donate for a second time.

Tonight is the night.

If we can do well in New Hampshire, we’ll move one step closer to the match-up we all want: Bernie vs. Trump — the real deal vs. an absolute fraud.

Aimin, you’ve made a contribution to this campaign — but today I want to ask you to do something less than half of Bernie Sanders supporters have done. I want to ask you to add your second contribution.

What we’ve faced so far is NOTHING compared to what’s coming next if we do well tonight. Politico reports there is talk that new attack ads are already being cut against Bernie.

And if we want to finish the job and get to Trump, Bernie needs you. And he needs you today:

Can you make a $2.70 contribution to our campaign today? Help us reach a goal of 50,000 individual contributions before the polls close in New Hampshire tonight. We have to be ready for what’s next if we do well.

June 28 — that’s the day you made your first contribution to this movement. It was for $1. Do you remember it? It gave this campaign life. Today’s donation will give it victory.

Let’s win this thing, and let’s transform this country.

Faiz Shakir, Campaign Manager, Bernie 2020

That… made me raise an eyebrow. And it made me do some math.

Sanders likes to boast about his 1.6 million donors. If less than half of them have donated multiple times…

Well, he’s raised $95,886,810 as of December 31 from individual contributions. Let’s say half of them (800,000) donated his average donation ($18). That would bring in $14,400,000. That means the other half (800,000) donated for the remainder of his fundraising ($81,486,810).

That comes out to an average of $101.85 donation per repeat donor.

It’s amazing what small donation amounts can do to your average donation value.

Amy Klobuchar, meanwhile, was just ecstatic with her third place finish in New Hampshire. She thanked everyone who made it possible, but then pointed out that she can’t slow down now. Klobuchar is definitely in for her biggest test yet: her infrastructure in Nevada and South Carolina isn’t as strong as it was in Iowa and New Hampshire. Especially with Nevada being a caucus state and her polling numbers of 0% with people of color… her narrative might not have anywhere to go after her New Hampshire finish.

She has not, it’s worth pointing out, gotten over her love of clashing colors in emails.

We lost the top AND the bottom

2 thoughts on “Day 267: 2/11/20

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