Day 266: 2/10/20

The day before New Hampshire, and everyone needs money to fund their last second get out the vote. If you’re a reader IN New Hampshire, it’s not too late to vote if you read this the MOMENT it’s posted!


For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, though I have previously been on the mailing lists of 28 Democratic candidates! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

It took some time for the Trump emails to kick in, so I started officially tracking his list on July 7. I have been tracking Biden’s for longer, but I will start comparing them as of July 7. All of these emails are going to a new email, and I have not donated, filled out surveys, signed petitions, or otherwise interacted with either candidate’s emails.

The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

T’was the night before New Hampshire…

Pete Buttigieg sent 7 emails, which is no longer surprising or even notable. Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren both sent 5 emails on Monday. However, what was genuinely shocking was Tulsi Gabbard breaking into the top three for the first time ever, sending 4 emails in a single day and tying with Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, and Andrew Yang.


With New Hampshire on the horizon, only 1 email did not ask for a donation, and that was from Elizabeth Warren asking me to make calls for her. Tulsi Gabbard included a video for me to watch in several of her emails, showing off how much she just loved to make phone calls to her supporters, and that’s why it was her favorite part of the campaign trail (and why she almost never does it except around FEC deadlines or apparently New Hampshire’s primary… I see you, Gabbard.)

For everyone else, money was the goal.

So many goals

Michael Bennet always made me sad with his goal amounts: he’s been struggling for $100,000 for a few days now, and for him, that goal is incredibly ambitious. However, his approach is…

Well, ever since James Carville endorsed him, I have been discovering that I really don’t like James Carville.


I don’t know about you, but to me, it feels like Democrats have lost our damn minds!

Donald Trump faced the biggest midterm loss in history – he’s weak right now, and we’ve got to go on the offense here. What Democrats need in order to win the long game is power! Do you understand? That’s what this is about, team.

I endorsed Michael Bennet because he’s not an ideologue or a socialist – he’s a battle-tested Democrat who knows how to win hard races in swing states. Chip in right now, and he’ll do more than win in New Hampshire – he’ll beat Donald Trump:

This vote is just the beginning for Michael – if he’s the nominee, you’ll have unmatched party unity. We can win crucial states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.

Listen, Trump went to Davos talking about cutting Medicare! Are you kidding me!?

He’s the first president to rip healthcare away from millions of people. He’s gutting school funding. He’s racking up a massive debt. It’s despicable, and I can’t take four more years of it, team.

But we won’t beat Trump by running down leftist rabbit holes!

Michael’s not wasting time shouting on Twitter – he’s listening to real people, he’s building a coalition, and he’s got a message that resonates with voters across the country.

I’m confident that Michael Bennet is the candidate to beat Trump! Chipping in $5 or more ahead of tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary will help us put an end to the Trump administration for good, team. It’s all up to you now:

You can curse the darkness or you can light a candle.

I’m getting a welding torch, alright?

Let’s do this,

James Carville for Michael Bennet

Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, hit her $2 million goal after the debate and doubled her goal to $4 million by the time the polls close. Andrew Yang has been begging and pleading for me to get him $2 million for about a week now, while Bernie Sanders is desperate for 75,000 donors (giving $2.70 each, so only $202,500) and is struggling to hit that goal.

Hi there, it’s Faiz. Bernie’s campaign manager. Wanted to give you three quick updates:

Super PAC ads for Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden are continuing unabated here in New Hampshire.

Pete’s campaign has been reporting big fundraising numbers in the past couple days.

If we do well in New Hampshire tomorrow night, we’re preparing for what will surely be an onslaught of ads from the political establishment trying to stop us.

We can’t let the billionaire class buy this election. So we need to reach 75,000 contributions — TODAY.

Right now, we’re short. By about 51,527. So we need to ask if you can make one today.

Faiz Shakir, Campaign Manager, Bernie 2020

Amy Klobuchar has been SURGING in the polls, she’s told me, going from statistically tied for second to third, which has made me laugh (though she’s also gone from second in questionable quality polls to third in good quality polls). She’s been pumped up and excited all month, though she hasn’t given me actual goal amounts, just names for her goals. I think we’re currently on the “First Primary Fund.”

Most of them don’t get imaginative with their asks.

Asking for money because they need money is the way that most of these campaigns are asking for money. Joe Biden is running the whole gamut, from “EVERYONE EMAILED YOU, WHY HAVEN’T YOU DONATED YET!?” to “This goal is significantly higher than previous goals.”

He included a screenshot, in case I hadn’t seen his emails in my inbox

He really did try to explain that while donations have been surging, because his goal is so much higher, that’s totally why he hasn’t hit it yet.

Also: gut punch, because nothing says “winner” like losing.

Problem from this approach is that his goal (which he didn’t enumerate in the email saying it was totally significantly higher than past goals), is actually significantly lower.

He’s aiming for $600,000 by the end of New Hampshire’s primary. In the past, his goals have been $1 million, $1.5 million, and even $750,000. This goal is actually one of his lowest goals he’s ever set.

And he’s struggling.

Michael Bennet touted another endorsement, this time from Maine Representative Jared Golden. He’s very pleased to have this “coveted” endorsement, but what I would be remiss to point out, thanks to @BallotTracker, is that Bennet did not actually qualify for the Maine ballot. Golden is endorsing Bennet even though Golden himself cannot vote for Bennet. It’s… definitely an interesting move.

Finally, Andrew Yang is getting desperate, pleading with the Yang Gang that he budgeted with the assumption he’d hit this fundraising goal, and it’s really looking like he’s not. Since he’s missed every fundraising goal since… about mid-January, at least, I’m really surprised that he thought he’d hit this one.

A few days ago we set a goal of raising $2 million by February 10 at midnight. Right now it’s not looking good. Here’s where we’re at:

Progress Bar towards $2 million goal by tonight at midnight.

This is not where we expected to be, Yang Gang.

Missing this goal would set us back. We’ve budgeted our strategy in New Hampshire under the assumption that we would reach our goal. We’ve hired staff and opened field offices with this goal in mind.

It’s simple — we cannot afford to miss this goal. Will you step up with a donation of $10 or more right now?

The Yang Gang is the strongest force in politics today. And we have complete confidence that you will keep us going.

Yang2020 HQ

It’s… not good if the strongest force in politics today isn’t getting you enough to keep your lights on. And it’s really not good if you planned your spending around hitting a goal after missing all your previous ones.

I hope tomorrow I get lots of drops.

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