Day 260: 2/4/20

Still no full Iowa results as of the time of this writing, but we have 71% reported in and Pete Buttigieg is running victory laps despite Deval Patrick comparing him to Trump. Bernie Sanders is glum about his standing, and Joe Biden is ecstatic about his fantastic showing.

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For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of 8 candidates for the Democratic Presidential Nomination! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

I signed up to all mailing lists either on May 21 or the day the candidate announced, whichever was later. Using a different email address, I have donated at least $1 to all candidates who have been on a debate stage (I have given additional donations to my preferred candidates through my personal email, but the campaigns have linked the two accounts together and may ask for more as a result).

When showing breakdowns by campaigns, there will usually be 2 numbers. Emails to my non-donor account will be indicated by a darker color/top bar in horizontal bar charts. Emails to my donor account will be indicated by a lighter color/bottom bar.

Unless otherwise specified, all other charts combine the donor and non-donor numbers, as they are roughly 1-for-1, so the percentages and relative differences don’t change much. You can divide the numbers in half to get the rough estimate for what someone not signed up twice would be receiving. The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

If you want specific data on any particular day, feel free to drop a comment!

8 of these emails came in around 1 AM.

Once again, Pete Buttigieg is king of emails, sending 8 in 24 hours. Joe Biden came in second with 5 emails, and Amy Klobuchar only sent 4.

All of the repeats were also Campaign Events

Unsurprisingly, Iowa dominated the emails. There were only 7 about News Events. 2 came from Amy Klobuchar, who was talking about polls in New Hampshire showing her statistically tied for second, while 5 came from Joe Biden, Michael Bennet, and Tom Steyer, who each wanted to talk about the State of the Union and how much Trump was lying.

Everyone else was talking Iowa.

As of Wednesday morning, we still don’t have all the results. Only 71% of counties have reported, and currently Pete Buttigieg is in the lead for state delegate equivalents (the metric by which delegates are awarded) while Bernie Sanders is leading in popular vote.

This is, of course, leading to an outcry of cheat and unfair. I feel the need to remind you that you have to play and win by the rules as written before you can change them, and before the caucuses even began, Buttigieg sent an email to that extent. Hillary Clinton was an example of why you can’t play by the rules you want to. Sure, it feels great that she won the popular vote.

But Trump still ended up with the White House.

You have to win before you can change.

Anyway. Sanders and Buttigieg look to be the winners, right? These were their responses first thing in the morning:

Like you, we are disappointed with what happened last night in Iowa.

But while we wait for the results, we cannot lose focus of the fact that New Hampshire’s primary, the first in the nation, is just seven days away.

And we have to be ready, and Bernie cannot do that alone.

Can you make a $2.70 contribution to our campaign today? There is no more important day to make your first donation to our campaign.

We will be in touch as soon as we learn more.

Faiz Shakir, Campaign Manager, Bernie 2020

Tonight, an improbable hope became an undeniable reality.

As you know, we are still waiting for a lot of the numbers out of Iowa. But with hope in our hearts and fire in our bellies, we’re going on to New Hampshire victorious.

Then onto the nomination, and on to chart a new course for our country. We’ve been focused on Iowa and we’ve spent a lot of our resources here. We need Team Pete — that’s you — to donate right now to help fund the campaign that can win in November.

We have exactly one shot to defeat Donald Trump. And we’re not going to do it by overreaching. We’re not going to do it by division. We’re not going to do it by saying, “It’s my way or the highway.” This is our shot to galvanize an American majority to win.

And make no mistake — this is the campaign that will defeat this president.

One year ago, in the chill of January, we began this unlikely journey to win the American presidency.

We weren’t well known, but we had a new idea. The idea that at a moment when Washington has never felt further from our lives, a middle-class mayor from the Midwest could carry the voices of the American people all the way to the American Capitol.

We had the belief that in the face of exhaustion, cynicism, and division — in spite of every trampled norm and poisonous tweet — a rising majority of Americans were hungry for action and ready for new answers.

We could see an American majority yearning for leadership to rally us together behind bold ideas that would make a difference in our lives.

Americans were ready to come together, but our politics weren’t. To seize this moment, we needed a new path forward. One that welcomed people instead of pushed them away; brought them together instead of driving them apart.

We know that with this American majority we are on the cusp of changing the game for ordinary Americans, but that we’d lose if we wrote people off who don’t agree with us 100% of the time. If we could come together, the future we know is possible would start on January 21, 2021.

We’re seeing Democrats hungry to win, Independent voters who had been turned off by our politics, Republicans tired of trying to look their kids in the eye and explain this presidency — all standing together to declare that we’re defined not by who we voted for in the past but by what we’re voting for in the future.

This is the coalition no pundit saw coming — and it’s the coalition this president won’t see coming either.

Through your efforts, we have brought together an extraordinary coalition of Americans — progressives, moderates, and an awful lot of what I like to call “future former Republicans” — united not just in what we are against but also in what we are for.

And now, because of what we were able to do together in this first contest, we can take this message onward — to New Hampshire, which has a way of making up its own mind, to Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond. To every corner of America. And we will continue building the movement that will not only win the election against Donald Trump but win the era for our shared values.

Something is stirring in America. You can feel it. We saw it tonight — in the bluest counties and the reddest, too, and in rural towns and industrial communities. You’ve helped give permission to believe once more.

Pete Buttigieg

Again, because Buttigieg’s email was long: these were the winners.

Sanders has been grumbling and disappointed ever since he self-reported his numbers showing him doing well. Buttigieg has been on cloud nine ever since he self-reported his numbers.

And Deval Patrick has been comparing Buttigieg, at least, and Joe Biden, to Trump.

After last night in Iowa, one candidate is calling the results into question because he apparently didn’t do well. Another is declaring victory without any votes confirmed.

The way to beat Donald Trump isn’t to act like Donald Trump. Our party and our country deserve better.

We can’t forecast our way to victory. We need to do the work.

That’s exactly what I’ve been doing in New Hampshire. While the other candidates have been in Iowa, I have spent the last six days traveling over 1,000 miles and visiting over 20 towns around the state on our bus tour.

The outcome in New Hampshire is now more important than ever, and I have a running start. We’re one week out from the primary, and I’m counting on your help in this final push before ballots are cast. Will you chip in to our campaign?

Deval Patrick

It’s worth noting that there is a difference between “winning” Iowa and “being victorious” in Iowa. In the whole lead-up to the caucus, candidates were pressed on what they needed out of Iowa. Buttigieg kept stressing a “strong finish” and a “good showing,” but he never once said “we need to be first.” In his “victory speech,” which is what he sent in that email quoted above, he called the Iowa performance a victory but did not say he was the winner.

For the first time in history, an LGBTQ+ candidate was taken seriously in the first contest for the Presidency of the USA, and if he didn’t win, he came within spitting distance of it.

This is a victory. To say it isn’t is to diminish the struggle for LGBTQ+ equality across the board. Buttigieg’s campaign backed up his claim of a victory with photos of caucus tally sheets and a memo detailing his self-reported results from over 1,200 of the 1,681 precincts. He wasn’t pulling a victory out of nothing, but looking at the data available to him and realizing there is no way his campaign could view it as a loss.

That is a victory.

Anyway. Putting my LGBTQ+ pride aside, Joe Biden was also declaring the Iowa caucus results as very, very good for him.

Folks — our campaign is SURGING.

Even though we are waiting for the official results from the Iowa Caucuses, we know we had a strong performance and feel good about where we stand.

But Iowa is just the first of many contests in the Democratic primary. And if we are going to make sure Joe is the Democratic nominee, we need to do well in all of them, including Michigan.

So we are reaching out to top Democrats like you to plan our strategy. Are you planning to vote for Joe Biden in Michigan?

Team Joe

With 71% of the vote in, Biden looks to be in 4th place. While his campaign is saying he over-performed according to their model, I can’t help but look at the results and wonder how badly they thought he was going to do, despite the polls putting him neck and neck for first.

Biden has sent several emails trying to hype me up for his victory.

Folks, I’m so grateful.

Thanks to Democrats like you, we fought hard in Iowa. Now, we’re well-positioned to make our case to the rest of the country.

But there’s no time to rest. We need to be prepared to take this campaign to New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and beyond. And meanwhile, Trump is attacking me non-stop.

Please, I can’t win the Democratic Primary and take on Trump without your help. Can you chip in $5 today to keep our campaign going strong?

Let’s all take a moment to take stock of where we are, and what we’re feeling right now.

It’s hope.

Hope that we can take America — not back to some imagined past that never was — but forward into a future that reflects our goodness and our highest values.

It’s hope, most of all, that we can win the battle for the soul of this nation. That we can unite around honesty and decency. That we can treat everyone with dignity and respect — and create a middle class that brings every single one of us along.

And tonight, as we begin the long road to November, and the critical work of coming together as a party, we saw once more that in America, no divide is too vast for us to bridge it.

Now there are a lot of votes left to cast in the campaign, and I’m going to fight for every single one of them. But, I’m going to need your help to do that.

So I want to know if you’re with me. Chip in below to keep powering this campaign:

I know that — whatever happens — we will come together with incredible strength as Democrats to take on Donald Trump, and to take back the White House.

When I was a boy, every time I’d walk out of my grandpop’s house, he’d yell: Joey, keep the faith!

And my grandmother would yell: No, Joey — spread it!

Thank you for spreading the faith, Iowa! Thank you for believing in me!

May God bless you—and God protect our troops.

Joe Biden

I don’t know about you, but “hope” is certainly not what I’m feeling, looking at the “most electable” candidate finishing fourth.

Tulsi Gabbard, on the other hand, is bluntly slapping us all.

You didn’t need to wait for final results to know this: We ALL lost last night.

Every democracy-loving American. Every candidate. Every voter who answered sham or suppressed polls. Every Iowa caucus goer who took time away from their kids and off work to volunteer to have their vote represented.

We all lost because when the party is broken — rigged to favor billionaires like Bloomberg, and establishment picks — We, The People lose.

It’s not enough to just call out what’s broken; This week alone we’ve seen CNN intentionally take away voters’ rights to hear from Tulsi, the DNC de-emphasize the importance of grassroots support to let Bloomberg pay to play, the debacle that was Iowa.

What we need now is a president who will immediately get to work on giving the Party back to the People. That candidate is Tulsi. Since she stepped down from the DNC in 2016 to protest a rigged primary and call for an end to superdelegates, she’s been working to reform the party for the good of the people.

We’re just 7 days out from the New Hampshire vote and if we have any hope of having our votes represented, we need to make sure Tulsi’s voice is heard. Can you chip in $7, $27 or $47 today to fund our Final Push before NH votes?

There’s so much at stake this election, thank you for siding with the people.

TULSI2020

Destroying confidence in our elections is a Russian strategy. That’s how Putin stays in power: no one trusts the Russian elections will be fair. That’s why he’s trying to push that mentality on America.

We cannot let our faith in our democracy be undermined. Anyone who tells you otherwise is helping Russia.

Everyone wants the Iowa fundraising bump.

Just about every email asked for money. Pete Buttigieg actually surprised me by offering a “Debrief with Pete” call for Wednesday which did not have a ticket cost. He and his senior advisors will be talking Iowa and what happened.

Interestingly, he first started advertising this call BEFORE the Iowa fiasco. I think it’ll be much more interesting this time around!

Joe Biden had the survey asking if I’d support him in Michigan, while Mike Bloomberg told me that he was the only candidate surging in Super Tuesday states and asking me to forward his ad everywhere. (I saw it live for the first time today, on Fox News at my office). Finally, Tom Steyer sent me a petition to stand with him against the lying liar Donald Trump.

Despite the fiasco, despite the State of the Union, it’s day two of the Iowa Caucus news cycle.

If there’s ever a year to be tuning into politics for the first time, I’d say it’s this one.

In just 24 hours, Buttigieg halved the distance between himself and Elizabeth Warren.

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