The story of Monday was Julian Castro’s reappearance into the Democratic race (that didn’t take long). However, a three-way tie in an Iowa poll also brought a lot of attention for the remaining front runners.
For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of 2 candidates for the Democratic Presidential Nomination! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!
I signed up to all mailing lists either on May 21 or the day the candidate announced, whichever was later. Using a different email address, I have donated at least $1 to all candidates who have been on a debate stage (I have given additional donations to my preferred candidates through my personal email, but the campaigns have linked the two accounts together and may ask for more as a result).
When showing breakdowns by campaigns, there will usually be 2 numbers. Emails to my non-donor account will be indicated by a darker color/top bar in horizontal bar charts. Emails to my donor account will be indicated by a lighter color/bottom bar.
Unless otherwise specified, all other charts combine the donor and non-donor numbers, as they are roughly 1-for-1, so the percentages and relative differences don’t change much. You can divide the numbers in half to get the rough estimate for what someone not signed up twice would be receiving. The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.
If you want specific data on any particular day, feel free to drop a comment!
At 5 emails on Monday, Pete Buttigieg was once again leading the pack. Michael Bennet and Joe Biden lagged behind at only 3 emails sent in a day, while Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang all sent 2.
Michael Bennet, Deval Patrick, and Cory Booker all wanted to show me their campaign ads and get me to both watch their videos and donate to their campaign. Bennet was very worried that he wouldn’t hit the $700,000 goal he set in order to release more ads in his series, while Patrick was proud of his very first campaign ad ever. Booker’s concerns were more about his reach: he could only afford to have his ad airing in two Iowa markets, and while he picked the most populous, he realizes he needs to get word out further in order to have a chance of winning.
Despite that, Booker did send an email recapping his Q4 fundraising, where he pulled in $6.6 million with over 70,000 first-time donors. It is worth an asterisk: Q4 was also when Booker said if he couldn’t raise the money he needed, he would drop out of the race. Many of those first-time donors may have been supporters of other candidates who felt his voice was valuable to still hear, but may not necessarily translate to sustained support. It will be interesting to see how this continues moving forward.
After all, moving forward, FEC deadlines are more frequent. During active election years, campaigns must make monthly filings, not quarterly. The next FEC deadline is not at the end of March but actually at the end of January.
We just finished a deadline, and another one is looming. This is going to be the pace for the rest of the election–and it’s a pace only Pete Buttigieg has pointed out thus far. I had seen these requirements plenty of times in my perusals of the FEC.gov website, but it never connected until Buttigieg let me know he would be having more frequent but smaller donations.
While the January FEC deadline comes before Iowa, it’s unlikely that numbers will be released before the Iowa caucuses. The Q4 fundraising numbers will still be the story of the campaigns’ strengths entering the first caucus of the year.
Joe Biden has jumped on the bandwagon of candidates touting the new ActBlue weekly donations feature. I was reminded dimly of that time when John Delaney told me I could donate to his campaign through Amazon’s Alexa many months ago. He never said anything more about it, and no other candidate has ever mentioned it. According to their website, only John Delaney, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar have this ability.
The big campaign event of the day, however, was former candidate Julian Castro endorsing Elizabeth Warren. Julian sent an email from his own account announcing his endorsement, and Warren sent one from hers accepting it… with a familiar story.
Julián and I both had the honor to serve in President Obama’s administration, where we had the opportunity to work on a number of issues that touch people’s lives.
And we both have succeeded because we got a shot at the American Dream.
Julián’s grandmother, Victoria, came to the United States at seven years old. She never made it past the fourth grade, but worked hard to teach her family the value of hard work as she cleaned houses and worked as a maid. She passed on those values of hard work and perseverance to Julián’s mother, who passed them on to Julián and his twin brother, Joaquin.
Both of us were blessed with the kind of opportunity we’ve had because we worked hard, our families worked hard, and also because our country gave us a shot to succeed.
Now, Julián and I are fighting side by side to ensure that families in our country today can have the same opportunity to achieve their dreams as ours did.
I admired the campaign that Julián Castro ran, and I’ll continue to fight for our vision of justice and opportunity — where everyone gets the chance to succeed and thrive.
I paid close attention to the big ideas he was adding to the race (I always appreciate when someone has a plan), and I was always glad to run into him on the trail, from debate stages to the Iowa Steak Fry.
Tomorrow, we’ll come together again and speak at an event in New York City.
We’ll talk about putting political and economic power in the hands of the people, where it belongs.
And we’ll continue to fight to make it happen — but we can’t do it alone.Elizabeth Warren
Yes, that’s right. Julian’s grandmother resurfaced in my inbox.
And then it happened again.
Elizabeth and I share a bold vision for the future — an America where no matter who you are or where you live, you can find good housing, your kids can get a good education, and you can have good job opportunities.
I’ve seen firsthand her commitment to this vision. We both served in the Obama administration, we worked alongside one another to boost housing opportunity while I was at HUD, and I’ve been so impressed with how hardworking and groundbreaking her campaign has been.
Elizabeth knows that big change doesn’t come by playing it safe or doing it alone.
We need a grassroots movement to take on the special interests in Washington, and a president who will push for big, structural change.
Elizabeth has a plan for that, and I’m ready to join her to get it done. But making Washington work for working people is going to take a grassroots movement. Please chip in $2 or whatever you can today to make a difference in these critical final weeks before caucusing and voting starts. Side by side, we’ll fight from the heart.
My grandmother came here as an orphan from Mexico when she was seven-years-old. She worked her entire life as a maid, a cook, and a babysitter to provide for her family — and just two generations later, one of her grandsons is a Congressman, and I was a candidate for president of the United States. That’s the promise of America.
Elizabeth will fight for that promise because she’s lived the American Dream. She grew up on the ragged edge of the middle class in Oklahoma. She’s the daughter of a janitor, and she went on to become a public school teacher, law professor, public servant, a U.S. Senator, and she’s the best person to be the next president.
Both of us were blessed with the kind of opportunity we’ve had because we worked hard, our families worked hard, and because our country gave us a shot to succeed.
There’s one candidate who I believe will make sure that shot is available to everybody in this country — that’s Elizabeth Warren. And I’m asking you to believe in her too.Julian Castro for Elizabeth Warren
And then it happened a fourth time, as Warren emailed me through Julian’s emails. The emails from Julian’s account and the ones through Warren’s account were virtually identical. The similarities between Julian and Warren’s emails were uncanny. Of course, when it’s coming from the same campaign, it’s coordinating a message instead of copying.
Julian is going around campaigning with and for Warren now, and the rumors that he’s been after her VP slot have been increasing by the hour. If she doesn’t pick him (or if she doesn’t become the nominee), I can’t help but wonder what’s in store for Julian next. Is there someone else he can hitch his star onto?
Meanwhile, Joe Biden boasted about the three-way tie in Iowa for first. According to a recent poll, he, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg all had 23%, while Warren was trailing with just 16%.
This is BIG news and I encourage you to read this email all the way to the end.
A brand new poll from CBS News has placed Joe Biden TIED for the lead in Iowa with Senator Bernie Sanders and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
This surge of support is incredible. But if we’re going to break this tie, here’s what we need:
Additional field organizers and fully supplied field offices to help us knock more doors and make more phone calls.
More ads on the air, online, and in the mailboxes to remind Iowa voters why Joe Biden is the right choice on February 3rd.
Look, all of this is expensive.Greg Schultz, Campaign Manager, Biden for President
I need another $300,000 by January 10th (just four days away) to fully fund these field and advertising programs. This is a tie ballgame and EVERYTHING is on the line. Will you rush $5 right now to help us win?
Bernie Sanders also quoted this poll. Both declared that if they had just a little more money, they’d pull off the win for sure.
Two new polls came out this morning showing Bernie tied for first in Iowa, and with a slight lead in New Hampshire.
CBS has it all tied up in Iowa: 23% for Bernie, 23% for Biden, 23% for Buttigieg. And in New Hampshire, it’s Bernie at 27%, Biden at 25%, and Warren at 18%.
This email is not to celebrate. It is to say that these polls show that the winner will be who can out-organize down this final stretch. Let’s make it Bernie.
Your door knocks, phone calls, text messages, and contributions are what has got Bernie and our campaign this far: tied for first, weeks before the election begins.
We are in THE position to win. So let’s finish it up. Let’s do all we can in these final 29 days to make sure it’s Bernie who comes out on top.Faiz Shakir, Campaign Manager, Bernie 2020
Interestingly, Pete Buttigieg, the third of the three-way tie, didn’t mention this poll at all. He rarely talks about the polls, except when comparing himself to Trump in head-to-heads. In fact, this was Buttigieg’s response:
I’ve spent the last few months here in South Carolina working with my team to expand our movement. The work our organizers are doing on the ground across the country to talk with voters is working. As people get to know Pete and his vision for our country, they understand that he is the leader we need.
The country is looking for a president who has a plan to move our country forward.
And now, with the Iowa Caucuses rapidly approaching, it’s more important than ever that we have the resources we need to spread Pete’s message across the country — especially as folks get ready to caucus and vote. If you want to help us win the early states and the White House, please consider chipping in here.
We’re running out of time and the coming weeks are a tipping point. If we do well, we will continue to rise in the polls and spread Pete’s message across the country. And if we don’t, we’ll lose our shot at the White House.
The Iowa Caucuses are on February 3rd. That means we have less than a month to gather the resources necessary to win this fight. This fight will take all of us, not just Iowans or South Carolinians. If you’re in this fight until the end, chip in here to help make a Pete presidency a reality.
We’ve always had ambitious goals, but each and every day with your support, they become more and more real. What I’ve seen on the ground is more than a group of Team Pete supporters — It’s a Team Pete family. And together, we can win the presidency.Jarvis Houston, South Carolina State Director, Pete for America
Finally, Tom Steyer asked non-donor me if I’d be interested in being a Presidential delegate for him, and he talked about how he’d pushed for a wealth tax long before Elizabeth Warren had. Part of me was tempted to respond to the delegate email just because, you know, delegate. To the Democratic National Convention. But Steyer isn’t my number one choice right now, and I wouldn’t want to be disingenuous. Sorry, Steyer. I hope you have enough Michigan supporters who are willing to help.