Day 198: 12/4/19

We managed to go a full day without losing any candidates! Phew! I needed a break from writing farewells!

Wednesday, however, had to do with one word: Opportunity. With a vaccuum left by Kamala, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson were scrambling over her supporters, while John Delaney remained confident that Iowa was up for the taking.

EmailsCampaigns
Total5913
Non-Donor3012
Donor2912

For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of 12 candidates for the Democratic Presidential Nomination! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

I signed up to all mailing lists either on May 21 or the day the candidate announced, whichever was later. Using a different email address, I have donated at least $1 to all candidates who have been on a debate stage (I have given additional donations to my preferred candidates through my personal email, but the campaigns have linked the two accounts together and may ask for more as a result).

When showing breakdowns by campaigns, there will usually be 2 numbers. Emails to my non-donor account will be indicated by a darker color/top bar in horizontal bar charts. Emails to my donor account will be indicated by a lighter color/bottom bar.

Unless otherwise specified, all other charts combine the donor and non-donor numbers, as they are roughly 1-for-1, so the percentages and relative differences don’t change much. You can divide the numbers in half to get the rough estimate for what someone not signed up twice would be receiving. The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

If you want specific data on any particular day, feel free to drop a comment!

This chart grows smaller

Pete Buttigieg sent out 5 emails on Wednesday, while Julian Castro only bothered with 4. Joe Biden, Cory Booker, and Marianne Williamson each sent out 3 emails.

People are remembering to offer contests.

With Kamala Harris out of the race, the cries of a lack of diversity on the debate stage are growing louder. Cory Booker continued to express his upset that there were more billionaires than Black people on the debate stage. Julian Castro reminded us that the problem (which Nate Silver of 538 agreed with, he claimed) was that Iowa and New Hampshire were the first states to vote.

Still other campaigns (and Castro) were also capitalizing on Kamala’s departure.

We’ve had an incredible surge of support in the past 24 hours. New supporters are jumping on to the campaign in droves, with yesterday becoming our best fundraising day in 4 months. We’re trending on Twitter. This race is fluid, and folks are finding a new home with #TeamJulián.

As we get closer to meeting the donor threshold for the next debate….

As we make our preparations to compete in the early primaries…  

As we continue this campaign that’s built to win…  

We need your help. >>  

Join the campaign that’s not leaving anyone behind. Our campaign has always been about putting people, not corporations, first.  

Contribute before midnight to keep this grassroots movement going. >>

Team Julian

I’ll admit, I don’t pay attention to the trending topics on Twitter, but I did check a “past 24 hours” thing and couldn’t find Castro trending in top 10 in the U.S. after 2 PM ET. To be fair, he never specifies how high he’s trending…

It was Marianne Williamson who shocked me with her email yesterday, though. With the subject “Marianne’s Success Strategy, Part I: One Less Candidate,” it was cold and opportunistic.

Dear Friend,

Yesterday, Kamala Harris ended her 2020 campaign. Marianne tweeted:

I wish @KamalaHarris all best wishes in her continuing journey. Running for president is not easy…. It’s exhilarating but it’s brutal, and I have deep respect for anyone who has taken it on.

Now, what does this mean for Marianne’s campaign?

One word: Opportunity.

In this large field of candidates, when one drops out, we needs to think about and evaluate the impact. 

First — all candidates but one will lose.

Second — each time one drops out, it benefits Marianne’s candidacy.

Third — the tactics by which we pick up support, and the manner by which we do so (grace and integrity), are paramount to Marianne’s success. 

The question is: Who will Kamala’s supporters now move to support?

To begin, we know this: Her supporters primarily live in California, are women, many of whom are also African American. 

Which candidate already has support from all of these groups? Yup — Marianne Williamson. 

Women? Check. 70% of our donations come from women.

California? Absolutely. Marianne draws thousands in California events, ran for Congress there, and lived in California for many years. 

African Americans? Yes. Marianne has written books and lectured for decades about issues of concern to African Americans, including reparations, economic justice and environmental justice. 

That is why we are still in this race. That is why we can succeed.

You may be new to Marianne or you’ve been with Marianne for decades, but today is a new day. The winnowing field means wind at our backs. 

We need donations to rise to capture the hearts and minds of those who supported Harris.

Donate now to provide the funds we need to invite them to join our team and grow this movement.

Our greatest appreciation and thanks,

Patricia Ewing, Campaign Manager, Marianne Williamson for President

Just look at the reasoning why she thinks Kamala’s supporters will jump to Williamson: they’re women, they live in California, and they’re African-American.

Williamson is supported by mostly women, draws huge crowds in California, and has written lots of books about African-American issues.

There is no talk about how Williamson’s policies would resonate with the people who were drawn to Kamala, no examples of how they were talking about the same thing, just using different words, not explanation for why people who appreciated Kamala’s prosecutor background or fiery Senate hearings would also appreciate Williamson’s power of love talk and history of writing books.

There isn’t even, I noticed, talk of how African-Americans currently supported Williamson. Just that Williamson had been talking for decades about issues that matter to them. (Just because you’re talking about the issues doesn’t mean you’re talking about them well.)

Yes, Williamson, this is an opportunity for your campaign. An opportunity to follow the example of a strong woman who could recognize a lack of path and drop out at the right time.

Of course, Williamson isn’t the only candidate running a campaign past its expiration date.

We’re heading into the final weeks before the Iowa caucuses — the first test of the 2020 election.

We simply have to be prepared to make a big showing in Iowa.

We’ve got volunteers at campaign offices heading out and knocking doors, putting up signs, and asking voters to commit to caucusing.

Iowa is the first test. But then we have dozens of states after that.

This race is going to heat up fast. And while moderates continue to drop out, we’ve got to keep building and growing the movement that can make it all the way. We need to have the resources for Iowa and beyond.

John Delaney

Yes, John Delaney is still in the race, and he’s determined to do well in Iowa. No, he hasn’t gotten anywhere close to the mid-single digits in his entire 860 day (more than 2 years) campaign. Doesn’t matter. He’s confident it’ll happen.

Michael Bennet is also holding on, having told reporters he’s in it at least through New Hampshire. He’s offering a chance to grab breakfast with him as a contest for a lucky supporter. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is offering dinner (with ice cream for a dessert), while Elizabeth Warren and Tom Steyer are offering debate tickets.

I never watch things emailed to me.

Marianne Williamson sent me a video explaining why politicized love will defeat politicized fear, while Tulsi Gabbard sent me a thank you video for helping her hit her November goal (though she sent this four days into December… did she actually hit her November goal in November?). Pete Buttigieg sent me his latest ad to watch.

Of course, they were all asking for money too. Bernie Sanders has a goal of hitting 5 million donations by the end of the month. Amy Klobuchar pointed out that when she first ran for Senate, she raised $17,000 from her ex-boyfriends and was wondering if this single email could do better than that. Joe Biden kept worrying about how much Trump and his buddies were hitting him.

Pete Buttigieg just received VoteVets’ first ever Presidential endorsement and wanted some financial good cheer. He also expressed concern over a super PAC for another candidate that had made a commercial trying to smear him. It’s my understanding that this is a pro-Cory Booker commercial, which seems a bit odd, but it’s also worth noting that Booker has disavowed super PAC support and is not allowed to have his campaign coordinate with the super PAC. It’s still a good example to use to point out that campaigns and campaign supporters don’t necessarily align, and bad supporters could give a campaign a bad impression to potential voters.

(It’s also worth noting that the super PAC ad seemed to be more of a “Hey, he’s not the ONLY Rhodes-scholar-mayor in the race! than a full-on attack.)

Haven’t heard much from the new guys.

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