Day 177: 11/13/19

Yes, Deval Patrick has officially joined the race. I’ve signed up for his emails and will add him to the analysis. Tomorrow.

Today, I want to talk about yesterday. Pete Buttigieg reminded his supporters to behave. Amy Klobuchar proclaimed her color-flipping strength. And impeachment was on the minds of some of the candidates.


For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of 17 candidates for the Democratic Presidential Nomination! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

I signed up to all mailing lists either on May 21 or the day the candidate announced, whichever was later. Using a different email address, I have donated at least $1 to all candidates who have been on a debate stage (I have given additional donations to my preferred candidates through my personal email, but the campaigns have linked the two accounts together and may ask for more as a result).

When showing breakdowns by campaigns, there will usually be 2 numbers. Emails to my non-donor account will be indicated by a darker color/top bar in horizontal bar charts. Emails to my donor account will be indicated by a lighter color/bottom bar.

Unless otherwise specified, all other charts combine the donor and non-donor numbers, as they are roughly 1-for-1, so the percentages and relative differences don’t change much. You can divide the numbers in half to get the rough estimate for what someone not signed up twice would be receiving. The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

If you want specific data on any particular day, feel free to drop a comment!

The next debate is a week out. Let’s watch this climb.

Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar tied for first with 4 emails each, while Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren all sent only 3 emails. Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, and Andrew Yang were even more restrained with only 2 emails each.

Quite a variety on Wednesday.

Pete Buttigieg sent the only “other” ask yesterday, with an email to his non-donors about his campaign’s Rules of the Road and an ask for his supporters to be willing to commit to them as well. Buttigieg is still the only campaign with a code of conduct, and I still absolutely love it. His Rules of the Road help set a framework that both his staff and his supporters clearly follow.

Amy Klobuchar asked if I’d be willing to split a donation between herself and Amy McGrath, who is running against Mitch McConnell. She said it would be good to send another Amy to the Senate. She also compared her campaign, once again, to a hotdish: from the heartland, filling, and capable of stretching your dollar. She also included a handy graphic showing how all of the counties Trump won, she won.

Maps comparing Amys Minnesota counties with Trumps
She can turn red blue, but can she turn cream blue?

Julian Castro has been scrabbling for last minute debate qualifications by scrabbling for money, as if money could buy him qualifying polls with literally hours to go.

We told you two billionaires are vying to buy this election. 

We told you there’s just 8 hours left for Julián until the next debate cutoff. 

We told you that grassroots supporters are the only thing that will save us. 

So what else can we say? 

There’s never been a more urgent time for Julián’s strongest supporters to have his back. Can we count on you in the final 8 hours?

Team Julian

I have less than 5 hours until the deadline to qualify for the next debates. 

So I’m asking you to stand with me one last time. 

If I can get 67 gifts before midnight, I can get my message out to voters in a pivotal moment in the race. Can I count on you to be one of the gifts I badly need? I’ve never needed your support more than I do now. >> 

I need you to know something. 

I’m not fighting to get on that stage for myself. 

I’m fighting for the victims of police violence who never received justice. 

I’m fighting for the kid who’s overlooked at school because of their zip code. 

I’m fighting for the 700,000 DREAMers who may lose the only home they’ve ever known. 

I’ll do whatever it takes to get their voice — and yours — heard on that stage. 

So this is my final ask: Will you fight with me and pitch in $5 before midnight?

Julian Castro

I hope this is the final time I have to explain it: CASTRO NEEDS POLLS NOT MONEY. He hasn’t mentioned polls at all since November 10th.

Not that his readers will be opening emails with his inspiring subject lines.

I completely forgot about his Twitter Town Hall and was wondering why he was spamming my Twitter feed.

Steve Bullock is embracing irreverency with a new piece of merch in time for winter.

Winter is coming! It's time to gear up.

'Trump Skis In Jeans' beanie
I can only imagine, for a Montanian, this is the HEIGHT of rudeness.
Here come the debates.

Candidates are asking what I want to hear about at the debates, but pulling in more money is still top priority. Bernie Sanders tole me that things were going really well, but he does have some challenges he’s facing.

The truth is, things are going very well for us right now. We are a campaign with extraordinary momentum.

We have the lead in a few state polls and are gaining significant ground in national polls. We have had the largest rallies in Iowa and nationally. And we have more grassroots enthusiasm than any campaign in this race because our agenda resonates with the working people and young people of this country.

But there are significant challenges as well. We are getting out-spent on ads in Iowa. Joe Biden’s super PAC is about to start spending big. And it seems like the political and corporate establishment is waking up to the fact that we have a good chance to win this race, so you can expect the kitchen sink.

Add to that the fact that November is typically a slow fundraising month, and we are 6.75% behind where we were at this point in October.

Bernie Sanders

So, here’s my question for any long-time Sanders fans out there: is he ever satisfied? It feels like whenever things are going great, he has to make up problems. He’s being outspent on ads in Iowa? HE HAS THE MOST MONEY IN THE RACE. If he’s being outspent, SPEND MORE.

Biden’s Super PAC is about to start spending big. It seems like we can expect the kitchen sink (it seems like we’re about to be attacked). These are both future problems that are not here yet.

Unfortunately, as discussed earlier, it’s very hard to garner enthusiasm if you’re not the underdog and struggling to keep up, and Sanders is still running his campaign like it were 2016 and he was the long-shot. He started this race on top and he’s never known how to handle it, so he keeps acting like he has all these issues holding him back.

He does have issues, I’ll give him that, but not the issues he claims to have.

And as for it being hard to garner enthusiasm if you’re not the struggling underdog… yes. It is hard. It requires someone with much more political skill to pull that off, which is why I feel like a candidate running with a message of positivity and hope is a better 46th President than one who is constantly struggling to make ends meet because the world is out to get them.

And with that shade thrown all around, yesterday marked the first day of the public impeachment hearings. Cory Booker started the day with a summary of how we got to this point.

Here’s how we got to where we are in the impeachment inquiry of President Trump:

FIRST: On September 24th, Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced her plans to launch a formal impeachment inquiry of President Trump, saying, “The president must be held accountable.”

THEN: Over a dozen key witnesses testified to impeachment investigators behind closed doors. And House Democrats found that the evidence warranted the continuation of the inquiry.

NOW: This morning, the House Intelligence Committee is holding the first public hearing of the inquiry, an important next step in taking the case against Donald Trump to the American public.

I support House Democrats’ efforts to give the American people the opportunity to evaluate witnesses in the impeachment inquiry for themselves, not through the lens of party leaders on either side of the aisle. If you agree, click here to add your name next to mine.

We need a process that is honorable, gets to the facts, and seeks to bring our country together. And that is exactly what House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff and House Democrats are doing by inviting the American people to learn the facts directly from witnesses.

They are running these proceedings in a way that puts partisan politics aside and sets up a process that builds consensus by ensuring the American people see all of the evidence against Donald Trump.

Because the people deserve to know the truth — that’s why a transparent impeachment inquiry is not only critical, it’s part of our moral obligation as Americans.

If you support House Democrats for protecting the integrity of the impeachment inquiry by opening up the hearings to the American people, add your name next to mine here.

Cory Booker

While Booker focuses on the process and how this needs to be done for the health of our country, Joe Biden focused on the President.

Right now, the House is proceeding with impeachment hearings.

I don’t take this lightly. But I also don’t take attacks on my family lightly. And I don’t take attacks on our democracy and a fair elections system lightly.

So it is my belief, that with his words and with his actions, President Trump has indicted himself.

He has publicly — on camera — violated his oath of office, betrayed this nation, and committed an impeachable act.

And today’s impeachment hearings only add to the evidence that Trump’s only real priority in Ukraine was to smear me — not fight corruption.

These hearings are about what kind of commander in chief we should have.

And, folks, I remain focused on my end of the bargain: I’m going to work every day to win this primary, and if I face Donald Trump in a general election, I will beat him.

Beating Trump next year is the only surefire way to get him out of the White House. So, please, while these impeachment hearings are underway, will you donate $5 to our campaign to help me defeat his lies and then go on to defeat him at the ballot box?

I expect throughout this process he will double down on lies about me and my family.

I am not concerned about that. I’m concerned about the very real threat to our democracy that Donald Trump poses.

But thanks to your support, and your generous donations, we can fight back against his lies and do exactly what he doesn’t want us to do — beat him anyway.

If you can, chip in $5 to our campaign during the hearing to send a message to Trump that we are getting him out of office:

Joe Biden

Michael Bennet was distraught over what was being revealed in the impeachment hearings.

Like millions of my fellow Americans, I watched with dismay this morning as senior State Department officials corroborated the alarming and impeachable offenses outlined by an anonymous whistleblower.

These actions are unpresidential and unethical. These hearings make one thing crystal clear: Donald Trump should never have been elected in the first place.

In just under a year, voters across America will head to the polls and could re-elect the man who is under an impeachment inquiry.

We only have one shot to beat Donald Trump at the ballot box .

I’m putting in the work it takes to beat Donald Trump next November. I can’t do it alone. Will you join me in this fight?

Other candidates in this race are more concerned with promises they can’t fulfill and playing into the media circus, rather than addressing the concerns of the nine million Americans who voted twice for Barack Obama and once for Donald Trump.

This president has displayed a flagrant disregard for the rule of law.

We have one shot to beat him at the ballot box and we can’t afford to mess it up.

My campaign has always been focused on real solutions, not slogans. Join me in fighting for truth and justice >>

Michael Bennet

And finally, Tom Steyer is just ready to be done with Trump once and for all.

Today, we are closer to impeaching this lawless president than ever before. 

The start of public impeachment hearings is a significant step forward in restoring transparency and accountability to our government. I am hopeful that these hearings will show people the facts, and force Republicans to listen to their constituents and recognize that no one is above the law — not even the president. 

After two years of organizing together, the American people will finally see Mr. Trump’s crimes brought to light. This is what happens when we’re united. 

When we all work together to protect our democracy, the American people win. That’s why, over two years ago, I went against the political mainstream and founded Need to Impeach — a grassroots movement of more than 8.3 million people committed to holding Mr. Trump accountable. Today is a testament to the notion that when we stand together in search of truth, we win — and that organizing can move our country forward. That’s the core belief that’s behind my run for president, and it’s why I’m asking you to keep organizing with me through 2020. 

Thank you for standing for what is right,

Tom Steyer
Tomorrow, this chart will be bigger.

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