Day 162: 10/29/19

On Tuesday, Beto O’Rourke needed some polls, Marianne Williamson is asking for a lot of money again, and Joe Biden is sure Trump is sabotaging him.


For all new readers: Welcome! I am currently on the mailing lists of 18 candidates for the Democratic Presidential Nomination! This blog breaks down recent emails with charts and excerpts. If you already know all of this, feel free to skip to the next chart!

I signed up to all mailing lists either on May 21 or the day the candidate announced, whichever was later. Using a different email address, I have donated at least $1 to all candidates who have been on a debate stage (I have given additional donations to my preferred candidates through my personal email, but the campaigns have linked the two accounts together and may ask for more as a result).

When showing breakdowns by campaigns, there will usually be 2 numbers. Emails to my non-donor account will be indicated by a darker color/top bar in horizontal bar charts. Emails to my donor account will be indicated by a lighter color/bottom bar.

Unless otherwise specified, all other charts combine the donor and non-donor numbers, as they are roughly 1-for-1, so the percentages and relative differences don’t change much. You can divide the numbers in half to get the rough estimate for what someone not signed up twice would be receiving. The rules I try to follow for the various categories are laid out in The Framework.

If you want specific data on any particular day, feel free to drop a comment!

I guess this is the reality for the rest of the month.

Julian Castro once again was in the lead with 5 emails begging for money, while Kamala Harris upped her game to 4. Joe Biden, Beto O’Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, and Marianne Williamson all sent 3 emails each.

Other was all asking people to share their stories.

Beto O’Rourke went back to his roots in asking people to split donations. This time, he asked for help for the Virginia House and Senate Democratic Caucuses as they have an upcoming election. And, of course, he asked for that donation to be split with him. O’Rourke also talked about his appearance on The Daily Show and how he can bring Texas and its 38 electoral votes into play. Finally, he pointed out that the deadline for the November debates are coming up fast, and everyone is watching to see if he’ll make it. There are only two options that he can see.

This is the harsh reality we face.

If Beto doesn’t qualify for the November debate –– the media will declare that Beto’s shot at winning the nomination is gone, Trump will try to convince Democrats that fighting for what’s right isn’t worth the political price, and our chance to connect with millions of new debate viewers will be lost.

But if Beto qualifies for the November debate –– we can prove that our grassroots movement is willing to fight every step of this race, make sure Beto is back on the debate stage to lead the conversation on the issues we care about most, and send a strong message to Trump & the NRA that their attacks won’t work.

Whatever happens next, is completely up to what we do this week. One of the most powerful ways you can help us at this critical time is to donate $3 or anything you can spare so we have the resources to fight for Beto.

Candidates only have until one week before the debate to qualify. And we won’t get a redo if we fall short.

Team Beto

Currently, O’Rourke needs 2 more polls. Unfortunately for him, polls aren’t something you can exactly buy, though money and ads do help, and time is running out for polls to be performed and reported on. It’s debatable if anything he does at this point can really shift the needle for him.

Pete Buttigieg is still offering a membership card for donations, and he’s also still asking for video submissions of why his supporters support him. Marianne Williamson is also asking for story submissions, but she’s inviting people to write emails for her about why they support her. One Black woman wrote about a time her son was stopped by a cop for wearing a hoodie and having his hands in his sweatshirt pocket. The cop reached into his pocket, pulled out a bag of chips, and sent him on his way. The mother lives in fear of her sons being killed for something as simple as that, and she believes only Williamson is approaching the root of the problem.

Oh, and speaking of Williamson, remember how over the weekend she was having her Love Tsunami and talking about how she doesn’t want big donations?

Average ask: $68.90

Yeah, that didn’t last long. Williamson is once again asking for $1,000 and $2,800 donations.

Andrew Yang sent a video he wanted me to watch, but as that required interacting with the email, I didn’t. I suspect he was asking for money, though, based on the context. (Yang Gang, Andrew is making a personal request!)

He also sent a text email where he’s worried about his goal. He’s set a deadline of October 31 to raise $1.5 million for an ad-buy, but as of Tuesday, he still needed over $500,000.

Money money money please!

Cory Booker is also worried about his goal. He’s so worried that he told me what his daily goal is: 4,119 donations of his campaign’s average $22.

As stated earlier this week, any time a campaign gives a daily donation goal… they fail.

Julian Castro is repeating a lot of his earlier talking points in his emails, about how Tom Steyer, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders all have huge advantages over him and how donations are pouring in and generous donors are matching them…

He did also announce a team call on Thursday in which the actress Justina Machado will give an exclusive update on the campaign’s fundraising. According to a Twitter post he made yesterday, the fundraising is already up to 80% of his goal. He will probably stay in the race.

Joe Biden is pulling from anyone he thinks might be profitable. On Tuesday, he emulated Julian Castro with anonymous “generous donors” matching donations and also expressing how humbled he was.

I just got an update from my team and they say we’re really close to making October the biggest month for online fundraising since we launched this campaign.

I’m reaching out to you directly to ask you to chip in $5 to help us build on this momentum »

I only have one thing to say — I’m truly humbled.

Every day I’m floored by the work this team is putting into winning this race, and I believe now more than ever that there’s nothing we can’t do together.

Look, we’re less than 100 days out from the Iowa caucus — and these primaries are going to be here before we know it. We’re going to win the battle for the soul of our nation one vote at a time, and I need your help to do it.

So, will you help us take this momentum into November? A group of your fellow donors and supporters have asked to double all online donations for the next 48 hours, so there’s never been a better time to give:

Joe Biden

Biden was also cackling over Trump’s plan to get him out of the Democratic primary backfiring.

At the beginning of this month, people were ready to count us out.

FIRST: News broke that Trump is trying to sabotage our campaign by any means necessary, committing acts bad enough to warrant impeachment.

AND THEN: News broke that we were behind in fundraising, trailing our primary opponents, because we had to spend money to fight back against Trump’s attacks.

That was exactly what Donald Trump wanted.

BUT NOW: Trump’s plan is going to backfire. October is on track to be our BEST online fundraising month since we launched this campaign!

We know we can do it. We just need to raise $550,000 more before Thursday!

Joe Biden for President

I really don’t think Trump is able to mastermind all of this. I suspect it has more to do with a lack of enthusiasm from Biden’s donors up until the point where he was being unfairly accused of corruption, and then pity gifts to show solidarity.

Or maybe Trump masterminded Biden’s poor fundraising. Could be either.

For those of you who’ve given Julian Castro a hard time about his unlabeled charts showing that the blue box under the WOW! had grown bigger than the one not under the wow, I present a chart sent to me by Michael Bennet.

Also no labels

As you can see, this is definitely an ActBlue chart. I can’t help but wonder if they are deliberately cropping out the scale, though.

(Who am I kidding: of course they are!)

As you can see from Bennet’s chart, donations have dropped off between Monday and Tuesday. But if you donate ANYTHING to him… you can get a magnet!

Joe Biden has sent 300 more emails than John Delaney.

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